We develop an alternative approach to the general equilibrium analysis of a stochastic production economy when firms' choices of investment influence the probability distributions of their output.

Life is uncertain. None of us know what is going to happen. We know little of what has happened in the past or is happening now outside our immediate experience. Uncertainty has been called the ...

Probability underpins AI, cryptography and statistics. However, as the philosopher Bertrand Russell said, “Probability is the ...

Probability theory forms the mathematical backbone for quantifying uncertainty and random events, providing a rigorous language with which to describe both everyday phenomena and complex scientific ...

Philosophy of Science, Vol. 50, No. 1 (Mar., 1983), pp. 82-95 (14 pages) The conditional probability of h given e is commonly claimed to be equal to the probability that h would have if e were learned ...

The outrage of the moment in my social media circles is over the New York Times hiring Bret Stephens as an opinion columnist, who promptly devoted his first regular column to sowing doubt about ...

PROBABILITY theory is a quaint little piece of mathematics. It is about sets of non-negative numbers that are attached to actual and possible physical events, that sum to 1 and that obey certain rules ...

To many, the concept of probability feels intuitive. We're used to thinking about the odds of everything from coin flips to election results. Probability has become so integral to everyday life, it's ...